Authors
- Lisitsa Maxim Ivanovich Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor
Annotation
The presence of expert impurities in the process of identifying and analyzing scenarios for the development of the object, the private embodiment of which can be the parameters of the investment project, remains an urgent problem. The purpose of the study is to substantiate and propose solutions that exclude expert influence on the investment design process, formalizing the measurement of the limits of the effectiveness of an investment project, i.e. its most unfavorable/favorable outcomes, in combination with the adapted application of the rules for choosing the preferred method of implementing an investment project. The methodology of the research is embodied in the dialectical method of cognition, the selection and analysis of relevant texts, the use of the discounting method, as well as the tools of quantitative modeling and mathematical statistics. The result of the study is to develop an approach that allows, on the basis of the initial data provided by the investor, to establish
the limits of its efficiency under conditions of uncertainty and without expert influence on the investment project by calculating the net present value at the most unfavorable/favorable outcome, and then to choose the preferred method of implementing the investment project, applying the adapted rules for minimizing the maximum possible losses and minimizing lost profits. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the obtained result in investment design, as well as in related areas based on the formalization of financial plans, but with the appropriate adaptation of the idea of the object in the context of the symbolic embodiment of parameters. The proposed set of solutions complements the methodology for identifying and analyzing scenarios for the development of an investment project, as well as related objects, including financial ones, developing the available tools, which constitutes the scientific significance of the study.
How to link insert
Lisitsa, M. I. (2026). IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS: CONCEPT AND TOOLS Bulletin of the Moscow City Pedagogical University. Series "Pedagogy and Psychology", № 2 (48), 109. https://doi.org/10.24412/2312-6647-2026-248-109-127
References
1.
1. Emerson H. The twelve principles of efficiency. New York: The Engineering Magazine, 1912. 423 p.
2.
2. Sickles R., Zelenyuk V. Measurement of productivity and efficiency. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019. 601 p.
3.
3. Shtele E. A., Vecherkovskaya O. B. K voprosu o ponyatii “e`ffektivnost`” // E`konomicheskij analiz: teoriya i praktika. 2017. T. 16. Vy`p. 5. S. 935–947.
4.
4. Fisher I. The rate of interest. New York: Macmillan, 1907. 442 p.
5.
5. Williams J. B. The theory of investment value. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1938. 613 p.
6.
6. Sprague T. B. On the value of annuities payable half-yearly, quarterly, etc. (Part III) // Journal of the Institute of Actuaries. 1867. № 5. P. 305–324.
7.
7. Yaczko V. A., Kocharli X. E`. Sravnitel`ny`j analiz investicionny`x proektov razlichnoj prodolzhitel`nosti // Biznes. Obrazovanie. Pravo. Vestnik Volgogradskogo instituta biznesa. 2017. № 2 (39). S. 191–194.
8.
8. Asyaeva E`. A. Pensionny`e annuitety` dlya programm social`noj podderzhki sotrudnikov vy`sshej shkoly` // Bankovskie uslugi. 2011. № 7. S. 26–32.
9.
9. Shlegel` O. A. Algoritmizaciya i programmirovanie annuitetny`x finansovy`x funkcij // Vestnik Povolzhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta servisa. Seriya: E`konomika. 2008. № 4. S. 215–219.
10.
10. Zarubiczkij M. V., Konyuxov V. A. Imitacionnaya model` ocenki riska razrabotki uchetnoj informacionnoj sistemy` metodom scenariev // Novaya nauka: opy`t, tradicii, innovacii. 2016. № 12-1. S. 72–74.
11.
11. Shinkareva L. I., Plaxov A. V. Neformalizovanny`e metody` analiza riska investicionnogo proekta // E`konomicheskie i gumanitarny`e nauki. 2010. № 4 (219). S. 8–11.
12.
12. Karandashov V. P., Matveeva A. A. Metod scenariev v ocenke investicionny`x proektov // Vestnik Permskogo gosudarstvennogo texnicheskogo universiteta. Prikladnaya matematika i mexanika. 2010. № 15. S. 104–113.
13.
13. Anoxina Yu. A. Metod scenariev v strategicheskom upravlenii // Sovremenny`e tendencii v e`konomike i upravlenii: novy`j vzglyad. 2010. № 1-2. S. 97–101.
14.
14. Orlov A. I. Raspredeleniya real`ny`x statisticheskix danny`x ne yavlyayutsya normal` ny`mi // Politematicheskij setevoj e`lektronny`j nauchny`j zhurnal Kubanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta. 2016. № 117. S. 71–90.
15.
15. Sibgatullin T. A. prospective analysis of company’s financial results for managerial purposes // Innovation & Investment. 2020. № 4. P. 130–134.
16.
16. Kosty`lev A. O., Skopina L. V. Modeli kompleksnogo ucheta faktorov neopredelennosti pri prinyatii investicionny`x reshenij v neftegazovoj otrasli // Vestnik Novosibirskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta e`konomiki i upravleniya. 2015. № 2. S. 214–230.
17.
17. Sternin M. Yu., Shepelev G. I. Analiz scenariev v metode obobshhenny`x interval`ny` x ocenok // Tavricheskij vestnik informatiki i matematiki. 2008. № 2. S. 195–201.
18.
18. Analiticheskij obzor metoda veroyatnostnogo dereva scenariev. Sposob ocenki stoimosti mineral`no-sy`r`evy`x resursov metodom veroyatnostnogo dereva scenariev / Yu. V. Zabajkin [i dr.] // Aktual`ny`e problemy` i perspektivy` razvitiya e`konomiki: rossijskij i zarubezhny`j opy`t. 2017. № 8. S. 87–91.
19.
19. Abramov E. V., Moroz T. A. Matematicheskie osnovy` prinyatiya reshenij v usloviyax neopredelennosti // Vestnik Volzhskogo instituta e`konomiki, pedagogiki i prava. 2022. № 2. S. 36–41.
20.
20. Wald A. Statistical decision functions which minimize the maximum risk // The Annals of Mathematics. 1945. Vol. 46. № 2. P. 265–280.
21.
21. Savage L. The theory of statistical decision // Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1951. Vol. 46. Iss. 253. P. 55–67.