MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION FACTORS AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS AT NLMK: ASSESSMENT BASED ON THE COBB – DOUGLAS MODEL (2011–2021) AND A FORECAST FOR 2025

The article is devoted to the microeconomic analysis of the production acti vities of NLMK for the period 2011–2021 using the Cobb – Douglas production function to assess the contribution of labor and capital to the volume of output. The purpose of the study is to study the efficiency of resource use, analyze the dynamics of total factor productivity and develop recommendations for optimizing production processes with a forecast for 2025. The research methodology is based on the least squares regression analysis applied to the company’s annual report data, which allows us to quantify the impact of produc tion factors on output and identify key trends in resource use. The analysis results confirm the capital-intensive nature of NLMK PJSC’s production, demonstrating constant returns to scale and positive TFP dynamics for the period 2011–2021. However, an imbalance in resource use was revealed: the marginal return on capital significantly exceeds the return on labor, which indicates overinvestment in capital assets relative to the optimal level of labor resource use. Based on these data, the forecast for 2025 assumes various possible development paths based on current macroeconomic trends and external factors. The baseline scenario assumes moderate growth, the pessimistic scenario warns of possible negative consequences of increased sanctions and reduced demand, and the optimistic scenario reflects the prospects for significant growth under favorable economic conditions. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of total factor productivity and the identification of asymmetry in the marginal productivity of production factors in the context of a Russian metallurgical company for the period 2011–2021. This allows us to formulate specific recommendations for optimization that integrate digitalization and environmental aspects to improve competitiveness. The limitations of the model used, associated with the simplification of the production process and the assumption of unit elasticity of substitution, require regular updating of the parameters and taking into account exogenous factors, such as changes in the economic environment and technological innovations. The study emphasizes the importance of achieving a balance between capital investment and human capital development to ensure sustainable company growth in the context of global competition.