FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF THE VALUE OF LARGE BLOCKS OF SHARES SELECTED FOR LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE EXISTENCE OF GLOBAL STOCK SUB-MARKETS OPERATING IN DARK POOL MODE

Long-term investing and the acquisition of large blocks of shares are advisable for investors, but only if a pressing problem is solved: investors should have confidence in assessments of the reliability of issuers and forecasts of likely changes in market prices of assets chosen for investment on a large investment horizon. The existence of large shareholders not only indirectly influences pricing in the securities market, but also creates conditions for the development of global stock submarkets operating in the Dark Pool mode, which creates a problem for all market investors without exception. The purpose of the study was to develop and demonstrate the capabilities of an algorithm for predicting the dynamics of the market value of one asset — a large block of shares selected for long-term investment, based on the results of the formation and study of a model portfolio of shares of several issuers, including a block of shares of interest to the investor. The methodological basis of the study is modern portfolio theory. The leading approach to studying the problem was to monitor changes over time (over five years) in the relationship between the market values of blocks of shares in a model portfolio, the composition and structure of which did not change. The results of the study were proof of the rationality of forming and researching a model portfolio of assets as an algorithm for predicting the dynamics of the market value of one asset selected for long-term investment in the conditions of the existence of global stock sub-markets operating in dark pool mode. Conclusions. It is necessary to make changes to the traditional decision-making model when assessing the feasibility of long-term investment in the acquisition of large blocks of shares by recognizing rational forecasting of the dynamics of the market value of large blocks of shares selected for long-term investment based on a study of model portfolios of shares of several issuers, including the block of shares of interest to the investor.